World top economies by 2050

[EclectYummination]

World economy thread.

Inspired by [this here thread (http://www.forumbiodiversity.com/showthread.php?t=13345)].

Brazil to overtake Japan? Surprising, but I can see it. China and India overtaking the U.S. and still on the rise? I'm not so sure about that, China is often over hyped in ability to take us out millitarily and much overrated economically in my opinion.

[Top 10 in the World 2020] (http://blog.euromonitor.com/2010/07/special-report-top-10-largest-economies-in-2020.html)

[Strictly projected (not certain): Vietnam and Nigeria enter the world's top 20 (13th & 14th) 2050] (http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:3kZpJ1zD5c0J:www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/pdf/world-in-2050-jan-2011.pdf+cache:I9j_BkKbWhUJ:sun.com.na/story/nigeria-may-beat-sa-economy-2050+Nigeria+2020+2050+top&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEEShT1MqucTcmjItlUTdRzyzQnz0keNg7yjxDgFsJ BO7Y-3c3rROXf_feA9nvVISvce-plbBTsrjzUmzkVxl8PxRI0uecZarMbRww0KeIWgAK2DjYXHw7q-L2AfphKgPds4sjOPS3&sig=AHIEtbQfJYzB0gjWIUvxY24oC6ZI2qkuYQ).

another forum discussion (http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showthread.php?t=228376)

Also, from "U.S.-China Rivalry Intensifies", by John Chan (http://www.globalresearch.ca/PrintArticle.php?articleId=16909):


The global financial crisis that erupted in 2008 has only served to underscore the vulnerability of the US and the rise of Chinese capitalism. While the US and European economies contracted in 2009, China contributed more than 50 percent of global economic growth. Last year China overtook Germany to become the world’s largest exporter. While major Western banks had to be bailed out, the seven largest Asian economies now hold $US4.6 trillion in foreign currency reserves—greater than the rest of the world combined...

Today’s tensions are compounded by the fact that no country is in a position to play the role that the US did in creating a new equilibrium after World War II. China is an economic giant with feet of clay, riven by economic and social contradictions. Its economy is dependent on Western investment, technology and markets. China’s great economic “strength”—its vast pool of cheap labour—inevitably produces deep-seated social tensions. While its GDP is set to become second in the world, its per capita GDP was just $3,259 in 2008, 104th in the world, behind Iraq, Georgia and the Republic of Congo. It has the second largest group of dollar billionaires in the world behind the US, yet 150 million people live on $US1 or less a day. The abiding fear of the tiny Chinese elite is that its police-state measures will not contain the immense social explosion that is building up.


How today is China per capita so poor? All those Asians over there? Poorer than Georgia, Iraq, and Congo? It can't strictly be due to the amount of people cuz it's per-capita, i.e. per-person and so proportional.

Due they have a lot of African expats / immigrants maybe?

[Kwestos]

I heard China's economy is quite unpredictable, value of their currency is artificially lowered and the economy is overheated, inflation muted down. I believe I read India may be more powerful, but them are only analyses of high paid wall street specialist who usually cannot predict anything properly.

[EclectYummination]

Interestingly enough, they have made some pretty big leaps in technological advancement; i remember the winner of this American college "anti-missile defense systems" contest a couple of years back were a Chinese team. :o

Also, it does not appear that they have that many immigrants. The Han seem to dominate. Japan seems the same way on immigration.

So how can a place very much of one race have such problems when it seems like many people from various areas of the globe hate globalization, and see it as a threat? IMO they seem wrong; it seems to be the future. Urbanized areas are connected to the rural ones no matter how much either side might resent it. Some of those "super-mega-ultra poor" places have large populaces with little need of coin as they rely on agriculture. Various times people under old modes and means of living are picked on by their own governments in these third world countries and "cleared out" and "brushed aside" to other areas. In South Asia (Burma, etc) and Southern Africa it's Tribes and Hunter-gatherers and groups like that. Also rural people are more succeptible to weather induced things like drought, so I don't think it's the way to go to go strictly "Ammish".

One book I skimmed in a store by a white nationalist (before I later saw the same name and looked up books by him and found out he wrote that book) was called the "Fate of Africa" or something like that. He in part of it opined on how early liberated (freshly post-colonial) sovereigns / rulers of Africa should have went the agricultural route instead of making an attempt at going technological, as it would've better suited them economically which would have better suited them technologically. Speaking of which, the issue of deforestation came up, which does seem to be a crucial thing. I know the West seems to have had a problem with it. Would you believe Germany once was shrouded in forests with (now extinct) Taurus in like Greco-Roman times?

China and the West indeed seem to be in competition in various parts of the world. I recall redding a funny article talking about a mention of Chinese humans rights violations where they posed a list longer right back at their accusers (us).

---------- Post added 2011-08-08 at 12:32 ----------

Also, in the bolded (in the O.P.) notice the subtle undertext to situations playing out now that weren't playing out then:


While its GDP is set to become second in the world, its per capita GDP was just $3,259 in 2008, 104th in the world, behind Iraq, Georgia and the Republic of Congo. It has the second largest group of dollar billionaires in the world behind the US, yet 150 million people live on $US1 or less a day. [b]The abiding fear of the tiny Chinese elite is that its police-state measures will not contain the immense social explosion that is building up.

Unrest reaching China has been talked about recently in the news. I don't think it's come to fruition though.

[Excel]

Its intellectually insulting when people compare China with India.

[Kwestos]

Its intellectually insulting when people compare China with India.
why? you can compare anything with anything

[EclectYummination]

Right (for now anyway).

Speaking again of China, you see them in all kinds of contexts on the opposite side of the fence than the West (not to say China / East Asia and other areas aren't Westernized / undergoing Westernization when they are), supporting people they don't support in terms of arms and weapons.


Its intellectually insulting when people compare China with India.

I don't really see where they were compared. Talked about in same breath and analyzed, okay. But compared to one-another?

[Incanal]

Good for Brazil. I hope they'll reduce crime too.

[EclectYummination]

Anyway in the end China and the U.S. seem pretty interdependent, I highly doubt there will be war or any these hypothetical situations guys here like to dream up.

[EclectYummination]

Related thread: Chindia Rule in the future? (http://www.forumbiodiversity.com/showthread.php?t=20867)

[Arminfrench]

Mexico shows up as 10th.... well now a days I dont see how our stupid motha fukas sons of bitches corrupted politicians are gonna arrange the whole thing to make that happen.....:whoco:

---------- Post added 2011-08-25 at 19:25 ----------

Believe it or not but if the United States hadn't been so selfish an had cared more about helpìng Mexico to get developed, they wouldnt have the Illegal immigrant issue now and USA/Mex/Canada would form an unmatching economy block ...... Mexico has an incredible potencial we would need to get rid of the corrupted peope and criminals, we need some Stalin-like "Purge" and to reeducate the population, soundS difficult but not out of the question....

[Fairway]

Mexico can't really blame the U.S. or other countries for its failure to develop. The Mexican state nationalized its huge oil fields back in the 1920s. Mexico has had plenty of time to use that wealth to invest in and develop itself, but there was too much corruption.

[EclectYummination]

It's not doing that bad though is it?

[Arminfrench]

Mexico can't really blame the U.S. or other countries for its failure to develop. The Mexican state nationalized its huge oil fields back in the 1920s. Mexico has had plenty of time to use that wealth to invest in and develop itself, but there was too much corruption.

Ypu may be basically right: the biggest blame falls upon mexican shoulders themselves. However the USA has its "contribution" for example by making some sort of treaties with mexican corrupted governments where Mexico was meant to stop producing engines and heavy machinery and should have bought it from he USA...

Did yoiu know that in 1920 México produced engines, airplanes and weapons????

[Fairway]

If that's the case, Mexico is responsible for the stupidity of agreeing to such a thing.

[Haradrim]

I feel very happy for Russia, they have the posibility of becoming an economic world power as opposed to just being a military big dog.

[EclectYummination]

Here is an article about Africa

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/01/06/africa-is-rising-inside-the-continent-s-great-economic-leap.html (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/01/06/africa-is-rising-inside-the-continent-s-great-economic-leap.html)


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[Россия Preußen]

china, india and russia are allready big economies check these 2 data out

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD/countries/RU-IT-FR-DE-GB?order=wbapi_data_value_2011%20wbapi_data_value% 20wbapi_data_value-last&sort=desc&display=default




Industrial output in billions of nominal $, 2011

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry#List_of_countries_by_industrial_output

European Union 4,371
(01) China 3,410
(02) United States 2,898
(03) Japan 1,602
(04) Germany 1,021
(05) Russia 699