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Thread: The XXI century according to George Friedman3039 days old

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ubirajara View Post
    Yes, according to him Russia will disintegrate and Poland will rise. Turkey will become an ally of Japan. Japan will be a major power whereas China will come back to the weakened position it was relative to Japan by the end of the XIX century and first half of the XX century. He also says spatial technology will be crutial in future warfare. And Mexico would pose a real threat to the US by the end of this century. ]
    These are mostly terrible predictions.

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    He speaks of Europe like one country. Unusual.
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    Some of the predictions are true… the point about US global naval supremacy is top-notch.

    I also agree with his postulation about Poland. As Islam spreads throughout the West, Poland really is important. The Ottoman Empire, Austria-Hungarian Turks have wanted to capture Poland for centuries now. And it seems Polish Catholics are some of the most fervent European Christians. There really is a cultural battle in Europa regarding Christianity and Islam. I don't know who will come-out on top. But I'd watch Poland.

    Poland also controls the West-East division between the EU and Russia. Since Poland is a Slavic nation… they have a tenuous division between Western Europeans and Pan-slavic Eastern Europeans.
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    I have followed Friedman for the past two years, after I started reading about politics for the first time. His thoughts regarding Turkey are sound enough (as they have control of the Black Sea, which is the key to Central Asia and it's energy, unless one wants to go through China, Pakistan, Afghanistan or Iran, which they don't), but his constant harping about Japan just don't seem right to me. Japan's population is heading for extinction, somewhat due to cultural stupidity. Japan and the US going at it isn't logical. I agree that China and Russia are going to have a rather rough time this half of the century. I believe he is correct about the US remaining at the top during the 21st century. India and China will not live up to the current media hype. I don't see how they could. As for Mexico challenging the US in the distant future, it makes me wonder. I don't see any other challenger materializing. As for Poland becoming a world power greater than Russia or Germany? Both the Russians and Germans won't let that happen. Friedman says Turkey would be more than happy to be left alone, but the US won't. According to Friedman, the US won't allow an Eurasian superpower to rise and challenge the US globally. The US doesn't like rivalry, it prefers setting everybody against each other, so they don't challenge the US directly. The only case where I could see something like that happening, is a major event that could mess up everything in geopolitical terms, and create destabilization (like a war between US and Iran, for example). Other than that, there is no reason why any country would want to challenge another one militarily. Territorial expansion is not so significant as it was back in the early 20th century, and most of the developed countries focus on economic development, which is also achieved through competition and cooperation.

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