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Thread: The origin of Slavs577 days old

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    Quote Originally Posted by Panthalika View Post
    But here we should also take into account other intrusions - Hungarian, Bulgarian, Gaugazian, maybe Ottoman. Hard to say how it would look like with only Slavic datapoints left.



    Exactly. And not the deep blue is the most meaningful here, but the close to neutral migration rate from the Baltics to Czechia and even further south. Simply it says that genetic differences between populations are proportional to geographic distance (we are assuming here some neutral rate of gene flow due to diffusion).

    In case of Slavic expansion from the East we should expect "barriers" along the western borders. A sign that two genetically distant populations live side by side due to real geographical barrier or recent migration. Instead we see a smooth gradient of mildly lowered migration rate between Western Slavs and Germanics.

    When it comes to Ukraine - Western Ukrainians are as distant from Poles, Czechs and Lithuanians as expected from the isolation by distance (so no special movement here!). But going to the East we see that Eastern Ukrainians are too similar to the Western ones for the distance that separates them - sign of expansion.

    This map practically shows that some South-Western group was slowly fusing with North-Eastern one and this mechanism produced a smooth Balto-Slavic genetic gradient going from Baltics to Czechia that perfectly correlates with modern (!) distribution.

    This gradient is clearly visible in Eurogenes spreadsheet for Western Eurasia. And even Litvin, despite his horribly erroneous methodology that distorts the data, ended up in the almost exact same place.

    Also intriguing is that this gradient correlates well with Amber Route.

    And there is practically zero chance that this pattern was created "by accident" during supposed Slavic migration from Ukraine (again - correlation of genetic and geographical distance, involves Balts [and possibly even Uralics], involves Germanics [no barrier, gene flow slightly below average]).



    Map from Cassidy 2015 shows that there is no BR2-maximum (sensu stricte) in Bosnia, so problem solved.
    BR2 together with RISE598 work in Litvin's results rather as a proxy for something genetically similar to modern Czechs. Further differentiation is achieved by picking up some wild admixtures like Mycenaeans+Armenia EBA on the Balkan side, or mesolithic HG on the Baltic one.



    And as you can see on the above plot RISE598-BR2 ratio is the least meaningful part when it comes to modeling Balto-Slavs.
    IMHO BR2 (sensu stricte) is just a local flavour. But a very important one, as it pins our hypothetical South-Western population to the Lusatian Culture.
    Old - but interesting - read on the related topics: Zbigniew Bukowski, "The 'pre-Lusatian and Trzciniec' phase spreading over the area North of the Carpathians and the Sudeten mountains".

    Last edited by Wojewoda; 2017-09-02 at 11:33.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Panthalika View Post
    What if that BR2 ancestry in Slavs
    We should rather talk about Slavic ancestry in BR2.
    Kyatice (BR2) culture comes from Lusatian culture (western Slavs) not the opposite. Read this post by Atimes:

    https://histmag.org/Skad-wzieli-sie-...#comment-55578

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wojewoda View Post
    Thirdly, the number of words that may be of substratum origin, and
    that are preserved only in Balto-Slavic, is very limited
    (perhaps as few
    as 14, but probably not more than 20). It is significantly smaller than the
    number of words of substratum origin that can be attributed to Proto-Celtic,
    or to Insular Celtic (see EDPC), and it is also much smaller than the
    number of substratum words in Greek, for example.18 This is probably
    due to the fact that, during the Balto-Slavic period, speakers of that proto-language
    were surrounded by speakers of other, more peripheral Indo-
    -European dialects (especially Germanic and Celtic) that were exposed to
    more intensive contacts with speakers of non-IE languages.
    Consequently,
    during the period when Balto-Slavic separated from the other NW European
    dialects as an individual idiom, borrowing from non-IE substrata
    was minimal.
    Ranko Matasović, "SUBSTRATUM WORDS IN BALTO-SLAVIC"

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    Quote Originally Posted by EastPole_ View Post
    We should rather talk about Slavic ancestry in BR2.
    IMHO he hadn't much Slavic ancestry.



    If he had, it would mean that he was mostly a more "farmerized" version of CWC. Yet he fits into Hungary BA cline and his haplo is J2a1 pointing rather to the Balkans. Sure, he was a Lusatian by culture, but I have doubts when it comes to the genes.

    For now I don't have any good idea how to connect the distribution of this BR2 affinity with Slavic expansions, other than some local ancestry that was added quite lately to the Polish gene pool ("Wielbark plots like BA Hungarians" etc.).

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    Brace yourselves, maps are coming. I'll be spamming the thread with them for a moment, sorry for all inconveniences.

    RISE569 vs. "Early" Slavic cultures.


    BR2


    BR2 vs. migration map, red dots mark "oldest Slavic hydronymy"

    The map above is a little bit problematic. BR2 (shared) ancestry seems to not correlate with the map of migrations. If the affinity that we see on the BR2 map is due to common Lusatian ancestry, it will mean that Lusatian Culture was already West Slavic (at least genetically) and that the migration we can see on the second map was probably an expansion of East Slavs along north-south axis. And rather from the north to the south, because Western Ukrainians are genetically too "western".

    This is of course a very fringe scenario since everyone knows, thanks to German and Lithuanian linguists and archaeologist, that Poland was Germanic and Belarus was Baltic at that time. In both countries we can find very old hydronyms, so it's impossible that Slavs lived there. Luckily in the small area in Ukraine linguists have found a multitude of purely Slavic names.

    Let's call this a "hydronymic founder effect":

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    BR2 vs. Lusatian Culture (green)


    BR2 vs. Pomeranian Culture (olive-green) and West-Baltic culture of cairns (violet)


    Migration map vs. Trzciniec culture


    Migration map vs. early Przeworsk, Milograd and Zarubintsy Culture

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    I just realized that one Baltic_BA sample on the PCA from "The Genetic History of Northern Europe" that is not marked with a red outline (as coming from this study) is not the RISE598 as I've thought before:
    One sample that was covered at less than 10,000 SNPs of the 1240k SNP set was
    excluded from further analyses (Turlojiske4).
    Sample on the plot is another one - Turlojiske3.
    I estimated the position of RISE598 by overlaying a PCA from Eurogenes (two times, aligned to CWC and aligned to Yamna, E/S/W/CHG and farmers).



    Turlojiske 3 will land among modern Poles, probably western ones.
    Most modern Poles are shifted toward Latvians and Baltic_BA because the mixing continued for another 1-2 thousand years and due to modern history (border shifts, PLC, polonisation etc.).

    Gene-flow into the eastern Baltic after the Bronze Age
    Despite the close clustering of modern eastern Baltic populations with Baltic BA on the PCA plot and Lithuanians and Estonians exhibiting the highest allele sharing for ancient Baltic populations with any modern population (Extended Data Figure 2), Baltic BA as a single source for either modern Lithuanians or Estonians is rejected (Supplementary Information Table S4). The statistic D(Lithuanian, Baltic_BA; X, Mbuti) reveals significant positive results for many modern Near Eastern and Southern European populations which can be caused by Lithuanians having received more genetic input from populations with higher farmer ancestry after the Bronze Age (Supplementary Information Table S8). As this applies to nearly all modern populations besides Estonians, especially for Central and Western Europe, limited gene-flow from more south-western neighbouring regions is sufficient to explain this pattern.
    Lithuanians and Estonians exhibit highest allele sharing because authors of the paper didn't use Latvians here. Lithuanians and Estonians are shifted toward e.g. Poles when compared to Latvians in the Eurogenes spreadsheet.

    But last sentence is the most important one. It confirms that such gene-flow happened, that population from Latvia mixed with a population from Poland/Moravia and that the rate of gene-flow was limited as the migration map shows. Closer to diffusion than to any large-scale migration.
    Last edited by Panthalika; 2017-09-07 at 19:53.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Panthalika View Post
    I just realized that one Baltic_BA sample on the PCA from "The Genetic History of Northern Europe" that is not marked with a red outline (as coming from this study) is not the RISE598 as I've thought before:

    Sample on the plot is another one - Turlojiske3.
    I estimated the position of RISE598 by overlaying a PCA from Eurogenes (two times, aligned to CWC and aligned to Yamna, E/S/W/CHG and farmers).



    Turlojiske 3 will land among modern Poles, probably western ones.
    Most modern Poles are shifted toward Latvians and Baltic_BA because the mixing continued for another 1-2 thousand years and due to modern history (border shifts, PLC, polonisation etc.).



    Lithuanians and Estonians exhibit highest allele sharing because authors of the paper didn't use Latvians here. Lithuanians and Estonians are shifted toward e.g. Poles when compared to Latvians in the Eurogenes spreadsheet.

    But last sentence is the most important one. It confirms that such gene-flow happened, that population from Latvia mixed with a population from Poland/Moravia and that the rate of gene-flow was limited as the migration map shows. Closer to diffusion than to any large-scale migration.
    On a PCA plot created by Gravetto-Daniubian active on some other forum there seems to be a cline from Latian MN1 sample (WHG) throught Hungarian Bronze Age to Mycenaeans:

    Last edited by Wojewoda; 2017-09-18 at 12:54.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wojewoda View Post
    There seems to be a cline from Latian MN1 sample (WHG) throught Hungarian Bronze Age to Mycenaeans.
    Not really. Anyway, this plot is based on the Global 10 coordinates.

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